Forecast of Potential Areas of Urban Expansion in the Laguna de Bay Basin and Its Implications to Water Supply Security
Lexxel JJ U. Tanganco1, Maria Angelica J. Alberto1,
and Charlotte Kendra Z. Gotangco1,2*
1Department of Environmental Science, Ateneo de Manila University,
Quezon City, National Capital Region 1108 Philippines
2Ateneo Institute of Sustainability, Ateneo de Manila University,
Quezon City, National Capital Region 1108 Philippines
The Laguna de Bay Basin is a highly important economic and environmental resource with a variety of land and water uses. This study investigates the status and trends of the land cover change of the Laguna de Bay Basin, focusing on urban expansion. Using the Land Transformation Model (LTM), drivers of conversion of agricultural and natural land cover to built-up land were determined based on the land cover change between 2003 and 2015. Drivers identified include distance to rivers, distance to roads, distance to Laguna Lake, distance to existing built-up, slope, population density, soil type, temperature, and rainfall. A forecast of urban expansion assuming “business-as-usual” conditions to year 2050 shows the expansion of built-up areas southward of the National Capital Region towards the areas of Cavite, Batangas, and Laguna, and eastward to Rizal. This poses a risk to the water bodies near these areas. Potential implications on water quality and quantity, as components of overall water supply security, are discussed. A framework for future research integrating land use and land cover change (LULCC) and water supply security is proposed. The study recommends the continued implementation of integrated watershed management and the development of more trans-boundary management policies.
LULCC can have profound effects on ecosystem functions in their watersheds or basins. Different types of land cover have varying needs and effects on its nearby water bodies such as agricultural land utilizing water more for irrigation and built-up areas for domestic purposes. In the Philippines, the Laguna de Bay Basin – spanning the provinces of Laguna, Rizal, and Metro Manila – provides food, water, and power supply to its inhabitants. With 58 sub-basins, 61 municipalities, and 12 cities, the basin is both a highly important economic and natural resource with many communities and industries depending on its land and water ecosystem services (Santos-Borja and Nepomuceno 2006). In recent years, it has been estimated that there are more than 14.6 million users of the Laguna de Bay region’s resources (LLDA 2015b). Laguna Lake is the largest water body of the Laguna de Bay basin and contributes much to the ecosystem services that the basin provides. Historically, the lake’s dominant use has been for fisheries but it has also been used for power supply, cooling of industrial equipment, transportation, and a floodwater receptacle (Santos-Borja and Nepomuceno 2006). Currently, it provides over 24,000 jobs for the fishing industry, supplies domestic water use through water providers, supports hydropower production, and is used as a waste sink for domestic, industrial, and toxic waste (WAVES 2016). . . . read more
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