Optimizing Evacuation Site Allocation for Mount Pinatubo Eruption in Pampanga, the Philippines, Using Linear Programming
Paula Nicole O. Mojica, Destiny S. Lutero, Gimelle B. Gamilla-Amorosa, and Monica C. Torres*
Institute of Mathematical Sciences, University of the Philippines Los Baños,
College, Laguna 4031 the Philippines
ABSTRACT
Natural disasters have been more frequent and severe, making mitigation policies such as evacuation protocols extremely important in reducing the negative impact of such disasters. Volcanic eruptions, in particular, may cause damage to properties and thousands of deaths. The unique tectonic setting of the Philippines makes it particularly prone to volcanic events. One of the most disastrous volcanic eruptions in the 20th century was caused by Mount Pinatubo in 1991, with the province of Pampanga as one of the most affected. The recent volcanic activities and the changing population and economic dynamics near and around the volcano suggest that communities and local government units in the region should re-evaluate, establish, and reinforce their contingency, emergency, and other disaster preparation plans such as their evacuation protocols since this is the most common approach in avoiding the loss of life and property in the face of a volcanic eruption. An aspect of evacuation planning is the evacuation site assignment of stakeholders. To move individuals from hazardous conditions to safe ones, mathematical models are used, focusing on determining the best utilization of routes and vehicles in complex urban transportation systems. While there are several studies on Mount Pinatubo, the literature is very limited in terms of the mathematical models used in the evacuation site assignment of affected communities. A transportation model is used to assign residents of Pampanga affected, as observed in the Lahar Zonation map, to evacuation sites outside the 40-km danger zone. The goal is to minimize the total distance traveled by the evacuees from their respective municipalities to the evacuation sites. Three cases were considered in the study. The first case allocates evacuees to provincial evacuation centers only. As provincial evacuation centers are not sufficient, covered courts in Pampanga were included as evacuation sites in the second case. Lastly, a prioritization scheme is implemented in the third case. The number of affected populations for each municipality, the list of evacuation centers and covered courts with their capacity, and the distances between each municipality and an evacuation site were gathered. Results of each case are presented, and network flow models are used to present the allocation of evacuees to the sites.
INTRODUCTION
Natural disasters such as volcanic eruptions are unavoidable occurrences that can cause significant economic losses, especially in countries like the Philippines that experience population growth and anthropogenic climate changes (Botzen et al. 2019; Seidler et al. 2018). Designing mitigation policies such as evacuation protocols is imperative in reducing the negative impact of such disasters (Botzen et al. 2019; Buckle 2012; Bakar et al. 2023). . . . . read more
