Marikina Flood Hazard Models Using Historical Data of Water Level

Elvira P. de Lara-Tuprio*, Evangeline P. Bautista, Reginaldo M. Marcelo,
Ramil T. Bataller, Divino Angelo B. Esteban, and Yvanne Paolo B. Yutuc

Mathematics Department, School of Science and Engineering,
Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City 1108 Philippines


*Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.



In this paper, ten-year historical data of water levels recorded at Sto. Niño, Marikina station of MMDA-EFCOS were analysed and processed to determine the number of times per year (annual frequency) that critical levels of the Marikina River near the Sto. Niño station were reached and for how long (duration). Probability distributions for the annual frequency and duration were then fitted to the samples obtained. Monte Carlo simulation was applied in order to generate possible realizations of the random variables. Summary statistics were then obtained from the simulated values. Finally, backtesting using historical data of water levels after the period of model development was performed to check the validity of the models. The results showed that the models obtained were reliable. The results of this study may be used to guide the local government of Marikina in planning the needed resources in order to sufficiently respond in times of flooding incidents.



Floods brought about by typhoons and thunderstorms are a perennial problem in Metro Manila, especially in low-lying areas like Marikina City. The problem may be considered as a combination of natural and manmade disasters. Damage to private and government properties, loss of lives, loss of livelihood, and disruption in social and economic activities are just some of the negative effects of flooding.
Marikina City is located in the eastern border of Metro Manila and bound on the west by Quezon City, on the south by Pasig and Cainta, on the east by Antipolo City, and on the north by San Mateo, Rizal. Marikina lies on what is known as the Marikina Valley, with the Sierra Madre to the east and the Quezon City hills to the east (Iglesias 2008). The Marikina River cuts across the mid-west portion of the city, while its tributary is on the north flowing slightly through San Mateo. . . . . . read more



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