GIS-Based Earthquake Damage Prediction in Different Earthquake Models: A Case Study at the University of the Philippines Los Baños, Philippines

Ibnu Rusydy1,3,*, Decibel V. Faustino-Eslava2, Umar Muksin3,5, Richelle Gallardo-Zafra4, Jedidiah Joel C. Aguirre4, Nathaniel C. Bantayan6, Lubna Alam7, and Shruthi Dakey8

1Department of Geological Engineering, Faculty of Engineering,
Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia
2School of Environmental Science and Management,
University of the Philippines, Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines
3Tsunami and Disaster Mitigation Research Center, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia
4Department of Civil Engineering, University of Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines
5Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia
6College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines, Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines
7LESTARI, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), Selangor, Malaysia
8Visvesvaraya National Institute of Technology, Maharashtra, India

*Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.



The University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB) is located in an earthquake-prone region and there are numerous earthquake sources that can possibly cause an earthquake at any magnitude anytime. A study of the earthquake damage prediction in several earthquake magnitude and time scenarios in GIS model analysis has been conducted for the UPLB’s campus. This study aims to produce several scenarios of the earthquake models and an intensity map for UPLB’s campus; to determine the damage ratio of the buildings and its distribution in different earthquake scenarios; and to estimate the casualty in the UPLB’s community; as well as to validate the earthquake model with historical earthquakes in the Philippines. Data preparation included the earthquake scenario model using shallow crustal shaking attenuation to produce an intensity map on the bedrock and the surface after site coefficient correction. The earthquake model in different scenarios is generated from the West Valley Fault (with Segment IV as the assumed locus). The damage ratio in different types of buildings was calculated using fragility curves of buildings of the Philippines. Population data of each building in different occupancy times, damage ratios, and injury ratios is used to compute the number of the injured due to an earthquake. The results reveal that UPLB’s building are subject to intensity range of MMI (Modified Mercalli Intensity) 6.7-8.1 due to 6.1-7.7 Mw earthquake coming from different sources along the West Valley Fault. The worst event of an earthquake is 7.7 Mw from Segment IV, which can cause 32-51% damage to buildings and injure 12-24.6% of a building population in a daytime (2 PM) event and injure 8-158 students in a dormitory at 2 AM (nighttime). The validation process shows that the mean square error between the calculated intensity and the actual intensity in the Philippines is 0.35.

Key words: damage prediction, earthquake, earthquake loss scenario, GIS, UPLB



The safety of a university is the most pressing need for students, lecturers, and university members. Universities have several types of buildings with different purposes (academic, services, administrative, and dormitory), some of which become more vulnerable compared to other buildings when an earthquake occurs. The Philippines experiences many destructive earthquakes in various parts of the country. One of the most remembered earthquakes is the 1990 Central Luzon earthquake with magnitude of Ms = 7.8 (Kojima et al. 1992; Wieczorek et al. 1992). Therefore, studying earthquake damage prediction in several scenarios becomes necessary to decrease the vulnerability and increase the capacity of the community in the future. . . . . . read more



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