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The 2009-2010 El Niño Southern Oscillation in the Context of Climate Uncertainty: The Philippine Setting

 

Graciano P. Yumul Jr.1,2, Carla B. Dimalanta1, Nathaniel T. Servando3,
and Flaviana D. Hilario3
1National Institute of Geological Sciences, College of Science,
University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines
2Department of Science and Technology, Bicutan, Taguig City, Metro Manila, Philippines
3Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration,
Department of Science and Technology, Science Garden, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines

corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it./rwgmails@yahoo.com

 

 

ABSTRACT

The Philippines is no stranger to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and its attendant impacts. Despite being plagued by several disastrous weather events that brought in a lot of rains during the period of September – October 2009, the country had, in fact, been warned of a conventional El Niño event as early as August 2009. With the continued below normal rainfall conditions due to the moderate 09-10 El Niño event being experienced in the country, measures to prepare against these drought conditions are being implemented. The drought and dry spell conditions are expected to persist until summer so the country must switch to a crisis mode in dealing with the impacts that will accompany this ENSO event.

 

INTRODUCTION

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the Philippines are characterized generally by drought conditions (e.g., Changnon 1999; Lyon et al. 2006; Abastillas 2009). This would happen if the ENSO is a conventional one when warming occurs in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the South American region. Recent works have recognized a different kind of El Niño, the Modoki or Dateline El Niño, which forms in the central Pacific region near the International Deadline (e.g. Ashok et al. 2007; Weng et al. 2009). Should Dateline El Niño occur, the effects on the Philippines would actually be the reverse. This means that instead of . . . . .

 

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