Philippine Journal of Science
152 (5): 1555-1577, October 2023
ISSN 0031 – 7683
Date Received: 23 Dec 2022

Vulnerability Assessment of Emerging Infectious Diseases
in Davao City, Southern Philippines: Utilizing Global Predictors
to Develop Localized Interventions

Marie Damgo1,6, Michael G. Bacus1,3*, Jan Danelle A. Bernido5,
Sherelyn A. Evangelio1,5, Kim Dianne B. Ligue1,5, Leo Manuel B. Estaña1,5,
Von Carlo P. Dela Torre1,4, Lyre Anni E. Murao1,3,4, and Pedro A. Alviola IV1,2

1Center for Applied Modeling, Data Analytics, and Bioinformatics for Decision Support Systems
in Health, University of the Philippines Mindanao, Davao City 8000 Philippines
2School of Management, University of the Philippines Mindanao, Davao City 8000 Philippines
3Philippine Genome Center Mindanao, University of the Philippines Mindanao, Davao City 8000 Philippines
4Department of Biological Sciences and Environmental Studies, College of Science
and Mathematics, University of the Philippines Mindanao, Davao City 8000 Philippines
5Department of Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Sciences, College of Science
and Mathematics, University of the Philippines Mindanao, Davao City 8000 Philippines
6Mapúa Malayan Colleges Mindanao, Davao City 8000 Philippines

*Corresponding author: mgbacus@alum.up.edu.ph

[Download]
Damgo M et al. 2023. Vulnerability Assessment of Emerging Infectious Diseases in Davao City, Southern
Philippines: Utilizing Global Predictors to Develop Localized Interventions. Philipp J Sci 152(5): 1555–1577.
https://doi.org/10.56899/152.05.04

 

ABSTRACT

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) – influenced by socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological factors – pose a significant threat to both global economies and public health. Multiple EIDs have emerged in the 21st century, including the current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic associated with a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2). Understanding the factors contributing to the emergence of EIDs is crucial for mitigating its risks and preventing disease outbreaks that could escalate into epidemics and pandemics. Thus, this study developed a scoring index that could estimate the vulnerability of an area concerning the emergence of novel EIDs using established global predictors – which include socio-economic and demographic factors (population density, housing, and business permits), weather variables (humidity, precipitation, and temperature), animal hosts (livestock and domestic animal populations), and wildlife-livestock-human interfaces (wet markets, urban green spaces, and commercial animal farms). Davao City, located in the Southern part of the Philippines, was used as a study site, wherein its barangays represent the smallest unit of geopolitical communities. Barangays vulnerable to EIDs were determined based on the resulting EID index. Clustering of vulnerability index scores across communities was identified using the Global Moran’s I and Getis-Ord General G statistic. The Getis-Ord Gi* and Anselin Local Moran’s I were then used to identify the hotspot barangays most vulnerable to EIDs. The most vulnerable areas to EIDs were barangays with larger urban green spaces and a higher number of commercial animal farms and wet markets in Davao City. These most vulnerable barangays were also clustered and located in the districts of Toril, Tugbok, and Calinan. Hence, an appropriate basic action plan for these most vulnerable barangays should be provided. Moreover, policies related to wildlife management and urban planning should be revisited, with emphasis on mitigating the risks (i.e. infectious disease surveillance, zoning, animal biosecurity, and sanitation and hygiene) associated with EIDs while giving equal importance toward maintaining a stable local economy.